Eighty percent of respondents in the latest Elon University Poll expect higher prices due to new tariffs, with a stark partisan divide on whether higher prices now are worth the hope of a better economic future.
A national poll conducted by Elon University reveals widespread economic anxiety among Americans following President Trump’s recent implementation of tariffs, with stark partisan divides in economic outlook three months into his administration.
The poll, which surveyed 1,000 American adults April 10-17, 2025, found that 43% of Americans believe prices will be much higher due to new tariffs, with another 37% expecting somewhat higher prices – meaning a total of 80% of Americans anticipate increased costs from the administration’s trade policies.
- Elon University Poll topline for American attitudes on tariffs and the economy (April 2025)
- Elon University Poll charts and analysis for American attitudes on tariffs and the economy (April 2025)
Tariff Concerns Split Along Party Lines
The poll reveals 65% of Americans are at least somewhat concerned that higher tariffs will negatively affect their family’s financial situation, with Democrats (90%) expressing dramatically higher concern than Republicans (41%). Other groups that expressed the highest concerns about the impact of tariffs on their family’s finances were Black Americans (76%), those with four-year college degrees (73%) and those with income above $100,000 (70%).
Is the Pain Worth the Gain?
In a Rose Garden speech, President Trump declared April 2, 2025, as “Liberation Day,” saying he was imposing reciprocal import tariffs to spur industry to return production to the United States and “make America wealthy again.” Asked for their opinions shortly after that announcement, 38% of Americans said they are willing to accept higher prices now with the hope of better economic outcomes in the future, while 43% rejected that trade-off. The partisan divide is striking: 71% of Republicans said they are willing to accept higher prices in the near-term compared with just 13% of Democrats and 25% of Independents.
White Americans were more willing to accept short-term higher prices, with 44% expecting the long-term result will be good for the economy. Half as many Black Americans agreed with that economic strategy, with only 22% saying they are willing to accept higher prices now, compared with 66% who are not willing to accept higher prices.
“A majority of Republicans in the United States continue to back President Trump’s economic policies, expressing willingness to accept higher prices for their perceived long run benefits of tariffs while also showing limited worry of recession,” said Jason Husser, director of the Elon University Poll. “Continued support among Republican voters certainly bolsters the President’s backing within his party in Congress.”
Outlook for U.S. Production with Higher Tariffs
While overall outlooks are pessimistic, a plurality of Americans said the impact of tariffs is likely to be positive for U.S. production, with 52% saying production of goods in this country will grow and the nation will become less reliant on foreign imports. In line with that expectation, 50% said producers will shift manufacturing to the United States and 49% said there will be more job opportunities.
Republicans had much higher expectations for those positive outcomes than Democrats and Independents, with 84% of Republicans expecting production of U.S. goods to grow, compared with only 29% of Democrats and 39% of Independents.
Confidence in the U.S. Economy is Weak
Confidence in the U.S. economy is weak, with 45% saying they are less confident in the economy since Trump took office, 32% feeling more confident, and 15% saying their level of confidence is unchanged.
This confidence gap follows strict partisan lines with 65% of Republicans reporting increased economic confidence compared with just 9% of Democrats and 17% of Independents. Conversely, 79% of Democrats report decreased confidence versus only 12% of Republicans.
Demographic breakdowns reveal additional patterns:
- Men (37%) are more confident than women (28%)
- Americans aged 45 and older are more confident (40%) than those aged 18-44 (25%)
- White Americans (39%) are more confident than Black Americans (8%)
Job security and future employment concerns
The poll reveals moderate concerns about immediate job security, with 28% very or somewhat concerned about keeping their job over the next few years and 55% saying they are only slightly concerned or not at all concerned. However, the following percentages of poll respondents said they are very or somewhat concerned that these factors could threaten their employment over the next few years:
- Economic recession: 50%
- Federal and state government policy changes: 44%
- Changes brought about by artificial intelligence: 40%
- Rising job discrimination against certain classes of people: 34%
- Industry changes: 33%
- Employer going out of business or making major cutbacks: 30%
- Demand for skills: 27%
“Independents are considerably more likely than Republicans to express anxiety in several indicators of employment security in our survey – from concerns about industry changes to employer cutbacks, to changes in federal policies,” Husser said. “These heightened concerns of independents are an early signal that the midterm Congressional elections, and the President’s subsequent policy agenda, will be heavily influenced by what happens next in terms of the real-world impact of the economic and trade policies since Inauguration Day.”
Social Security Concerns
Across all groups, there is agreement that major changes in the Social Security system are coming in the next several years, including adjustments in the level of benefits and qualification rules. Overall, 66% of Americans said those changes are likely, including 83% of Democrats, 63% of Independents and 54% of Republicans.
There are also significant concerns that the operations of Social Security in the months ahead may impact Americans’ ability to receive and manage benefits. Overall, 56% of Americans said they are at least somewhat concerned about Social Security operations in coming months, including 77% of Democrats, 61% of those with incomes less than $50,000 and 60% of those aged 45 and older.
Impact on Summer Vacation Plans
One-third of Americans (33%) report planning to spend less and stay close to home for summer vacation due to the economic climate, while 47% anticipate little to no impact on their vacation plans. Only 3% plan to spend more and take a nice vacation.
The vacation spending gap shows clear partisan influence with 49% of Democrats planning to reduce vacation spending compared with 18% of Republicans.
Poll Methodology
Access the poll topline and methodology at: www.elon.edu/elonpoll. The survey was developed by the Elon University Poll and fielded by the international marketing and polling firm YouGov as an online, web-based survey, self-administered with online panels. Between April 10 and April 17, YouGov interviewed 1,149 U.S. adults aged 18 and older. These respondents were then matched down to a sample of 1,000 to produce the final dataset.
Throughout this report, the analysis of partisan differences compares the views of Republicans plus those who lean Republican in their voting preference with Democrats plus those who lean Democratic. The margin of error for this poll (adjusted for weights) is +/-3.58%.
About the Elon University Poll
Established in 2000, the Elon University Poll conducts national and North Carolina surveys on issues of importance to voters and residents. Information from these polls is shared with media, citizens and public officials to facilitate informed public policy making through the better understanding of citizens’ opinions and attitudes. The poll is fully funded by Elon University and operates as the neutral, non-biased information resource.
The Elon University Poll is a charter member of the Transparency Initiative, a program created by the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) in 2014 to educate polling firms on ways to better share how they collect and interpret their information. The Elon Poll’s voluntary participation in this initiative signifies a willingness to clearly state in its reports how questions were asked, in what order, who funded the poll and then conducted it, and a definition of the population under study, among other details.